Hi YXI friends,

We currently offer TSLA, BTC, AAPL, and TLT daily quant signals in this service. We combine these signals with our other methodologies in analysing SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC and Mag-7 in the full daily macro note.

I plan to keep TSLA free for everyone, everyday. Please share the newsletter with friends and colleagues who may find it helpful for reference.

Premium subscribers can enjoy daily access to BTC, AAPL, and TLT signals (plus other Mag-7 names in the future).

We employ individual proprietary quantitative models for each name we cover to outperform the Buy-and-Hold strategy. The model examines the various macro drivers and asset specific factors against an asset’s historical performances, taking positions when the conditions are favourable and moving to cash when they aren’t. It is a long-only strategy without leverage.

The model does not try to beat the S&P 500 or produce absolute returns. Moreover, the model does not know when earnings or news events are. Investors must exercise their own judgements accordingly.

In interpreting the signal, there is no “minimum” holding period when the signal shows 1 (“position on”). The model strategy simply holds the asset until the signal turns to 0. This could be after 1 day, 1 week, or longer.

(Note that each model is being improved over time, so the below success rates and back-test results are subject to change. The model outputs are not financial advice and there is no guarantee of future performance.)

Table of Contents

• 1. TSLA

• 2. BTC

• 3. AAPL

• 4. TLT

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. TSLA

Today’s TSLA signal is back to 1. Yesterday’s cash position was too cautious in hindsight, as TSLA moved up steadily during the day, closing at +3.5%.

A question I get asked is the frequency of changes of the signal - how temperamental is it?

The answer actually depends on the market conditions. The strategy itself does not have a “smooth setting” of minimal number of days to hold the stock before considering the next signal. It’s not a technical challenge, but a design choice. The market moves fast and presents new information everyday. We could be losing out on benefiting from the new information if we throttle the changes. At the same time, daily targets do likely suffer from more noise.

It is a fine balance.

In our latest backtest, the strategy showed a string of “1”s between late October and late January. We also had a string of “0”s in early February and early April. However, there are also periods when the signals change every other day or few days.

I would urge our subscribers to watch and see how 1) the model works in real time with unseen data, and 2) how they feel about the signal changes from day to day. The model doesn’t account for transaction costs or tax considerations.

Finally, it is worth remembering this famous quote by George Box, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”. (okay, I might just be the worst salesperson in the world.)

YXI TSLA Model Daily Signal

For Tesla, our backtests show that buying when the signal is 1 and moving to cash when it is 0 could improve daily success rates by roughly 3% versus “Buy and Hold.” The strategy also exhibits less than half the maximum drawdown. (These results are based on historical data and may not predict future performance.)

2. BTC

Claim Your 7-Day Free Access To YXI Premium