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FOR SELF-DIRECTED INVESTORS AND SMALL ADVISORY FIRMS

Beat the S&P 500 without reading a single news story.

Four proprietary models score about a hundred markets overnight. The names they agree on become the portfolio, up to ten at a time, before the US open.

FREE FOR THE FIRST MONTH · CANCEL INSIDE IT AND PAY NOTHING
Yimin XuBuilt by Yimin Xu, former G10 rates market-maker at NatWest Markets.
ONE MORNINGSAMPLE · 4 AUGUST 2026
THE PORTFOLIO
79.1%INVESTED
Ten holdings79.1%
Cash20.9%

Cash is a position here, not a leftover.

THE WEIGHTS
HYG15.0%
LMT15.0%
XLF15.0%
EEM11.7%
NVDA10.4%
IGV10.0%

Three names sit exactly on the 15% cap. Sizing wanted to give them more.

THE MODELS
TICKERMODELS THAT AGREEIN THE PORTFOLIO
HYG15.0%
NVDA10.4%
OKTA5.7%
QQQNot held

QQQ is long on the signals page and still not held. Only two of the four agree.

BEFORE THE US OPEN
10
HOLDINGS
79.1%
INVESTED
73
NAMES READ

Every morning, in the same shape, whatever the week is doing.

01The numbers

Ten years of testing, then a live record anyone can check.

32.5%
SIMULATED ANNUAL RETURN
S&P 500 15.3%
−16.8%
SIMULATED WORST DRAWDOWN
S&P 500 −32.0%
14.6%
SIMULATED VOLATILITY
S&P 500 17.2%
2,541
SESSIONS TESTED
June 2016 to July 2026

All four are simulated on Macro & Megacaps, net of costs, on data the models never saw. The live record starts 3 August 2026 and publishes every week.

02Which one fits

One service at two depths, and a companion portfolio.

IF THE POSITIONS ARE ENOUGH
Macro & Megacaps: Signals
Holdings, weights and exits go out before the US open.
See what it covers →
IF THE REASONING MATTERS TOO
Macro & Megacaps: Signals & Research
The same portfolio, plus the macro note twice a week and deep dives on the holdings.
See what it covers →
IF EQUITIES ARE THE PROBLEM
Commodities: Signals
A second portfolio runs on metals, energy, agriculture and the producers.
See what it covers →

From $3,000 a year, with a free first month on every annual plan.

03How it works

Three steps, and the first costs nothing.

Picking the names is the easy part. The sizing, the timing and the exit decide the year, and all three are settled by rule before the open.

01SEE WHAT PUBLISHESSamples are open, including the days a call did not work.
02RUN IT ALONGSIDE FOR A MONTHThe first month costs nothing, and so does cancelling inside it.
03PUT IT INTO THE MORNINGThe portfolio, the models behind it and what changed, in the same shape every day.
04Who this is not for

This will not suit everyone.

  • You trade intraday. The signals publish once, before the open.
  • You want a 10x in a month. This compounds through the cycle.
  • You want a reason for every move. Nobody honest has one.
  • You want to be told what to do with your money. This publishes positions, never instructions.
  • You override a rule when it feels wrong. Then it is not a rule.
  • Options are how you express a view. Leverage is fine, options are not.

If none of those is you, the free month answers the rest.

05Why this exists

Independent means something specific here.

Most market research sits beside trading, banking or advertising revenue, and those incentives shape what gets said. There is no desk here, no banking clients, no sponsors and no affiliate links. I sell subscriptions and nothing else.

Everything published is locked when it goes out and cannot be edited later. Downgrades publish the week they happen, the ones that did not work included.

06Where to start

Beat the S&P 500 without reading a single news story.

Read it free for a month. Cancel inside the month and pay nothing.

Published for information and education. It is not personalised advice, not a managed account, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Capital is at risk, and past and simulated performance tell you nothing certain about the future.

AN INVITATION, NOT ADVICE

This is what I run. You’re invited to read over my shoulder.

Nothing here tells anyone what to do with their money. This is the operation I run for my own investing, published as I use it, including the weeks it goes badly.

The work is closer to observation than prediction. The models report where the market stands, the record shows what came of it, and the process improves as that evidence builds. None of it asks anyone to be attached to a particular trade, mine included. We are watching the market from the same side of the glass.