Hi YXI friends,

This is a very brief note as the US citizens finally casts their votes between Harris and Trump.

While the betting market showed a big Trump lead in October, the margins have narrowed significantly in the past week. And even if one candidate is a 60% favourite, the odds don’t really mean much as the Election is a single event where the winner takes all. (As opposed to a coin-toss exercise where we can toss the coins 100 times to see outcomes trending towards the truth odds).

These ideas could be utterly wrong, as the market is never linear. But at least it’s fun to compare these predictions versus outcomes.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Harris

GOOGL

GOOGL is attractively valued at the moment and I think the stock has not taken off due to the political / policy risks of Trump winning.

JD Vance openly said in his Joe Rogan interview that he believes GOOGL is not serving the American interest. Eric Schmidt of GOOGL has donated a lot of money for the Democrat campaign.

GOOGL Daily (https://www.tradingview.com/x/PLb6Yhkq/)

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