Hi YXI friends,

In this environment, uneventful days are the best. We want VIX to come back to earth (currently 30, ideally 15), and the investors steady their feet a little.

Yields have backed down since Friday’s close, but it is still early to say whether it’s a temporary retreat or we will get back to the pre-sell-off normal. I have been using my TLT Model Signals daily (it is already outperforming buy-and-hold since launch) to gauge the macro environment for bonds.

We also have launched Daily Signals for Bitcoin (check out yesterday’s free note here). Yesterday, it suggested a long position using data prior to Friday, which coincides with a potential breakout near term.

I do encourage you to check it out with a free trial. In the coming weeks, we will introduce model signals for each of the Mag-7 stocks. You can lock in the current price forever before we raise it next week.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

• 2. TLT

  • FOMC Projections

  • TLT Technical Analysis

  • YXI TLT Model Daily Signal

• 3. Bitcoin

  • YXI BTC Model Daily Signal

  • BTC Technical Analysis

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Opportunistic Setups

• 6. Trade Updates And Monitoring

• 7. Notable ETF Flows

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

Data were as of 7am GMT.

Observations from today

1) Yields have retreated - the 10-year bond yield is down 13bp from last week’s close. TLT closed up.

2) Stocks indices opened high yesterday, but neither SPY nor QQQ closed above +1%.

3) AAPL continues to lead the Mag-7s in this bounce.

4) Gold/ GLD finally closed negative. This could indicate the “sell bond and buy gold” strategy taking a pause here.

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

FOMC projections are unchanged overnight, although yields are lower for 2026. We don’t anticipate a cut until at least June.

TLT Technical Analysis

US 30Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/78TnOzCe/)

The small retrace in the 30-year yield does not change the large picture so far. But it would be normal for a retrace to continue here to at least digest some of the move of the past week. It will be interesting to see the strength of the market demand in the absence of Chinese selling (if the rumours were true).

The test is if the yields could move below the 200 EMA, which is below 4.5%.

$TLT ( ▼ 0.88% )  (https://www.tradingview.com/x/wC4CDPh9/)

Similarly, a bounce here for TLT is entirely reasonable. It will keep the blue bullish alternative in play. The 200 EMA will be the real test.

YXI TLT Model Daily Signal

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