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Time To Panic? Popular Single Stock Chart Updates

Liquidity Update, plus charts on TSLA, CRM, ADBE, PLTR, AMD, SHOP, NFLX

Author

Yimin Xu
February 25, 2025

Hi YXI friends,

First, a big welcome to the hundreds of new joiners to my newsletter this month. A lot of you come from X and have seen my chart takes. Huge thanks for your support.

While the YX Insights Newsletter dives very deeply into individual topics across macro, rates, Magnificent-7, China, crypto, and oil, I want to spend at one day every fortnight to just focus on technical analysis of the popular equity names outside of these themes.

I will keep this new segment completely free for our subscribers. All I ask is for you to share my newsletter with friends or colleagues, and thereby helping me keep the momentum going.

Table of Contents

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Brutal Sell Offs on Friday and Monday

S&P 500 sold off 2.6% in the past 3 days, pushing the Fear & Greed Index deep into the “Fear” territory at 29, bordering the “Extreme Fear”. This is despite the market having just made a NEW ALL TIME HIGH last Wednesday.

This seems to be the theme this year - we get big sell off on arbitrary catalysts across DeepSeek, Tariffs, Earnings, but only to recover a week later.

Is now different? I don’t think so. Let me explain the bullish outlook from a macro liquidity point of view first, before going into individual charts.

Fed Liquidity Increasing vs. Bond Yields Falling

Since February 11, the Fed liquidity improved by $126 billion, driven by both falling Treasury General Account balances and Reverse Repo Volumes. This is generally supportive for risk assets.

The US Treasury have hit the debt ceiling and needs to spend down its Treasury Account at the Fed. This means less cash parked at the Fed and more money flowing into bank reserves and real economy.

The Reverse Repo Volume is now only at $77 billion, down from $188 at January month-end. This means money market funds are lending less money to the Fed (to collect the overnight rate), and more money flowing into Treasuries.

10Y Bond Yield (Green) vs DXY (Blue)

As a result, bond yields has fallen sharply since the hot CPI print, from 4.65% to today’s $4.35%. This has helped ease the US Dollar strength too.

Normally, we see yields lower bing supportive of risk asset pricing. Why? Lower yields mean higher bond prices, which boost the value of collateral in the system that can easily be used for borrowing cash. At the same time, lower interest rates help ease financing terms as well as the discount of future free cash flows in modelling.

A weaker USD also helps improve the Global M2 in USD terms, which holds a close relationship (with lag) with Gold and Bitcoin prices.

Friday’s Move

Finally, just looking at the size of Friday’s move. QQQ and SPY were lower by nearly 2 standard deviations (of its 30-day rolling average), while VIX and MOVE were up nearly 2.

A similar condition was observed previously on January 27, 2025 and September 3, 2024. QQQ and SPY both more or less stabilised in the following 1 week.

2. Charts

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla should be moving through wave cirlce-5 of v of (c). This is to say TSLA is moving towards the end game of this pretty seismic crash. My wave circle-5 of v target is $308-312, which has now been reached after the open.

I do expect a bounce from here.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix topped in wave (v) of circle-iii at our exact prediction (in this article here), after calling for a post earnings up move, which is more luck than skill.

Previous chart on Jan 23 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/AhEzfyAW/)

We previously marked the wave (v) of circle-iii to top at $1058. It topped at $1062 three weeks later on Feb 18.

Now for the wave circle-iv pullback, we have just seen 5 waves down from the highs. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect a wave (b) bounce above $1000 soon, before wave (c) terminates around $920. It is difficult to tell the precise path right now, without seeing the wave B rally first.

Salesforce (CRM) - Earnings on Wednesday

Salesforce is in a largely bullish trend still, but has spent the past 3 months consolidating in a range between $300 and $360.

Ahead of earnings, I favour the wave (c) of circle-iv correction having been completed, with the next target in the $400 region, which is the 1.382-1.618 inverse extension of wave cirlce-iii to circle-iv.

I think the risk reward is tilted to the upside here, if one has a stop below $282 and a target of $398.

Adobe (ADBE)

ADBE requires more patience from bottom-pickers. It appears to be doing a zig-zag of A-B-C pattern, now in wave circle-v of C. It could fall below $380 before bottoming. This is not unusual given it has previously completed 5 waves up from September 2023 to January 2024.

Palantir (PLTR)

First, please ignore people on X who says PLTR will move 100x from here by 2030. It would put PLTR’s market cap at $20 trillion, which is 75% of the current US GDP. That’s just not going to happen (GPD grows at 2-3% per year, so it won’t be drastically different in a few years, especially if we get a recession).

At the same time, I don’t think PLTR is completely done in the medium term. It appears to have completed wave 3 and now moving in a wave 4 correction.

If the move is in the shape of a zig zag (my primary expectation, I think wave (iii) of this first move down can reach $74 before a reasonable bounce. Therefore, I would stay cautious here near-term.

After the entire wave 4 pullback is done (which can take some time), I do see one more high for PLTR in wave 5.

Advanced Micro Device (AMD)

There is only 1 word for AMD - bearish. Whether it is deserved.

AMD appears to be in a prolonged wave (C) down having topped last March. The wave (C) is subdivided into 5 waves, and AMD is likely moving in wave iii of 3.

The near-term downside target is $100 before a potential bounce.

Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify is still in a very bullish trend, likely having started wave circle-v of 1. However, it is currently going through a smaller degree wave (ii) pullback, which can end below $105.

On the smaller degree, SHOP is moving in wave v of (a) in a Zig-Zag formation (5 waves in both legs (a) and (c).

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