Hi YXI friends,

We had a very encouraging rally yesterday, but the bearish risks are far from over.

Today, we walk through TSLA earnings first, before going through TLT, Bitcoin, and the Mag-7s individually.

Let’s dive in!

(For those looking for Model Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on TSLA (free), AAPL, BTC, and TLT. We also show them in the main content below.)

Table of Contents

• 0. YXI Daily Dashboard

  • Observations from today

  • SPY and QQQ Charts

• 1. TSLA (Quick) Company Update

  • TSLA Business Segments And Performance

  • YXI TSLA Daily Signal

  • TSLA Technical Analysis

• 2. TLT

  • FOMC Projections

  • YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

  • TLT Technical Analysis

• 3. Bitcoin

  • YXI BTC Daily Signal

  • BTC Technical Analysis

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • YXI AAPL Daily Signal

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

• 5. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 6. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

0. YXI Daily Dashboard

Observations from today

1. Monday’s price patterns largely reversed on Tuesday, with Gold falling and everything else up. However, Bitcoin kept its upward momentum from the weekend, moving firmly into the mid-$90k.

2. Equities rallied significantly yesterday, with SPY up 2.4 standard deviations on the daily. AAPL led the Mag-7 rally on a volatility adjusted basis.

3. 2Y vs 10Y curve flattened overnight, down nearly 10bp from yesterday. US vs Japan and US vs China spreads also tightened by 8bp. This could pressure stocks lower.

SPY and QQQ Charts

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/HP2zOVag/)

SPY’s rally has not cleared the trend line resistance above. This is a pattern you will see in the Mag-7s as well. Until it does, the risk remains on the downside.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQYTmaBk/)

QQQ’s rally reversed Monday’s drop, but is still under last week’s range. Risks remain on the downside if it doesn’t break out of the trend line.

1. TSLA (Quick) Company Update

TSLA Business Segments And Performance

72% of Tesla’s revenue in Q1 comes from automative related sales. This is actually down from Q4, for a bad reason - automative sales dropped sharply in the quarter.

Energy generation & storage and Services share the remaining revenue equally.

In Q1, total automative revenues dropped by 20%. It was simply very ugly, but may have come at no surprise to investors as Tesla’s monthly deliveries were closely tracked across the globe.

Tesla attributes the Q1 sales decline to 1) lost production weeks for Model Y changeover and 2) regional brand hostility.

Energy generation and storage rose by 67% YoY, slowing from the triple digit Q4 growth, but impressive nonetheless.

From May, Elon Musk will reduce his time commitment at DOGE to “a day or two per week”. This should be welcoming news for Tesla investors as Musk refocuses on the company.

Musk has further confirmed that Tesla expects to be “selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin”, but the real financial impact will only be seen mid-year 2026. The initial Austin fleet will be Model Ys, not “Cybercabs”.

Compared with Waymo, Tesla’s vision-only, AI-driven solution (cameras + in-house chips) costs 20% of Waymo’s sensor suite (according to Elon), with much higher fleet volume and integrated software updates.

On Optimus, Musk is aiming for thousands of units in Tesla factories by year-end and scaling to 1 million units per year by 2030. From investors, it doesn’t really matter whether it happens or not in that timeline, it’s the market sentiment towards these targets that counts.

Tesla Key Metrics YoY Changes

Model 3 and Model Y productions were down 16% in the quarter, with deliveries down 12%. Other models suffered more on percentage terms.

Tesla Productions and Deliveries By Model

Tesla Production Capacity By Location

The production capacities were unchanged. Tesla is still installing lines for Tesla Semi in Nevada and the Cybercab in Texas.

YXI TSLA Daily Signal

We employ individual proprietary quantitative models for each name we cover to outperform the Buy-and-Hold strategy. The model examines the various macro drivers and asset specific factors against an asset’s historical performances, taking positions when the conditions are favourable and moving to cash when they aren’t. It is a long-only strategy without leverage.

In interpreting the signal, there is no “minimum” holding period when the signal shows 1 (“position on”). The model strategy simply holds the asset until the signal turns to 0. This could be after 1 day, 1 week, or longer. Model signals are not financial advice.

For greater explanations on how the model strategies work, please see my latest morning note dedicated to the Daily Model Signals (TSLA signals are free).

TSLA Technical Analysis

TSLA (https://www.tradingview.com/x/k5JB9LsU/)

TSLA rose by 5% before earnings on the day and another 5% after the earnings call. It signalled that bearish results hardly surprised investors going into the ER.

I caution that the reaction is far from finished. Tesla remains just under the resistance trend line, with a lot of volume of supply in the $275 region. The 200 EMA is at $290. TSLA is only decidedly bullish if it could clear both of these areas soon.

TSLA vs G5 M2 Money Supply

Luckily, TSLA has the liquidity tailwind for upside momentum. It trades closely with the rise and fall of the G5 M2 Money Supply (G5 being US, China, Eurozone, UK, Japan) with a 3-month lag. G5 M2 has been rising since January, which should help TSLA’s price recovery.

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market has pretty much priced out the chance of a May cut, but June remains a likely meeting for the next cut. Overall, the market expects 4 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

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