Hi YXI friends,

Yesterday, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in the wait-and-see mode. However, as you will see in the TLT section, the market continues to price in a new cut by the June FOMC.

While still concerned that tariffs could simultaneously increase inflation and reduce economic growth, Powell has rejected the notion of a Fed put, citing that the market is working as intended.

Stocks rolled over after Powell’s comments, although we had been expecting this downside risk ahead of the speech.

Let’s dive in!

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Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

  • Observations from today

  • SPY and QQQ Charts

• 2. TLT

  • FOMC Projections

  • YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

  • TLT Technical Analysis

• 3. Bitcoin

  • YXI BTC Daily Signal

  • BTC Technical Analysis

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Opportunistic Setups

• 6. Trade Updates And Monitoring

• 7. Notable ETF Flows

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

Observations from today

1. Truflation’s real-time measure of US inflation dipped overnight, from 1.42% to 1.36%. The 10-year inflation expectation measured by Breakevens is also trading lower, at 2.17%. The market is pricing in greater deflationary pressure from the economic weakness than the inflationary pressure from the tariffs.

2. Yields are essentially flat overnight, despite Powell’s “No” to the “Fed Put” and the equity market turmoil. In this sense, the equities market is more pessimistic than the bond market.

3. Gold / GLD continue to be bid up - the 3.25% daily change represents a 3-standard-deviation move against its 1-year history.

SPY and QQQ Charts

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/frMuzt4G/)

SPY’s move after Powell fits our wave (v) expectation so far, where SPY could head towards a new low, and as far as $470.

However, I do suspect that the market would want to assess a more bullish alternative around $500, which is the 0.618 - 0.786 retrace of last week’s rally. If the market stops there and hold above the April 7 low, we could reassess for a more bullish path going into May.

While the futures are green, we are heading into a long weekend with a lot of policy risks, which could weigh on today’s close.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/2PYsJeeu/)

Similarly, for QQQ, my bearish wave 5 expectation is $370-390. However, $416-426 will be the an area of significant bullish interest.

Over there the market will try to assess whether we can hold the April 7 low, and attempt the start of a new rally. We need to stay on our feet.

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

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