Hi YXI friends,

Happy Easter.

If you read my morning note, you may have seen that we have added the new quant model signals for AAPL - this is a daily strategy that is purely based on our proprietary machine model, like for BTC and TLT.

Tomorrow, I will be adding TSLA to the suite too, with more of the Mag-7 to be added in the next few weeks. I look to keep TSLA free for everyone, sharing in this newsletter first, before publishing on X ahead of the NY open.

However, if you are interested in our daily macro analysis, quant signals for AAPL, BTC, TLT (with more to come), you will benefit from today’s low price by taking a 7-day free trial below. Our price will rise after the market close today.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

  • Observations from today

  • SPY and QQQ Charts

• 2. TLT

  • FOMC Projections

  • YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

  • TLT Technical Analysis

• 3. Bitcoin

  • YXI BTC Daily Signal

  • BTC Technical Analysis

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Opportunistic Setups

• 6. Trade Updates And Monitoring

• 7. Notable 1-day ETF Flows

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

Observations from today

1) Fed Liquidity remains on an 1-month uptrend, but retreated in the past week due to a sharpe change in Treasury General Account (TGA). All else equal, this is negative for liquidity.

2) We had a muted end to the short trading week last week, as opposed to large unwinding into the long weekend. On the margin this is positive.

3) Yield curve, 2y vs 10y Treasuries, continue to steepen. This means the market are buying the front end and expecting near-term cuts, but are shying away from the long end bonds.

SPY and QQQ Charts

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/owQ9B6cA/)

SPY is poised to open lower today, in a continuing retrace pattern that we have been expecting in the past week. $508 is our first target, where I suspect bulls would start trying their hands.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/BKR0slpJ/)

QQQ is also down 1% in London hours. This fits our expectation of a retrace towards $426 as the first stop.

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

The market is pricing in 115bp of cuts in the next 12 months. This means 4 × 25 bp cuts being fully priced, starting in June, and there is a 60% chance of a 5th cut in March 2026.

YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

I send a separate morning note everyday just for the quantitative signals. You can check out the fuller explanations and backtest results for each signal in that note (link below)

We employ individual proprietary quantitative models for each name we cover. It examines the various macro drivers and asset specific factors against its historical performances. Note that each model is being improved over time, so the below success rates and back-test results are subject to change. The model outputs are not financial advice and there is no guarantee of future performance.

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