Hi friend,

Today we are analysing the seasonal patterns of SPY, QQQ, and IWM. This not only includes the monthly patterns in the past years, but also the intra-month patterns as well as intra-week patterns.

The key question is:

As usual, you can jump right into the individual section through the links below

• SPY

  • SPY monthly patterns

  • SPY daily patterns: June and July

  • SPY weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

• QQQ

  • QQQ monthly patterns

  • QQQ daily patterns: June and July

  • QQQ weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

• IWM

  • IWM monthly patterns

  • IWM daily patterns: June and July

  • IWM weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

Let’s have some fun!

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1. SPY

SPY monthly patterns

June is supposed to be a quiet month seasonality, but we saw a robust 2.89% gain in SPY so far.

SPY daily patterns: June and July

Typically, SPY finishes June quite strongly, after some intra-month woes. However, this June, we had a near straight-up pattern until the 20th.

SPY weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

We are currently in week 26 of the year. Week 27 should be an easier week.

Note that these weekdays do not always neatly overlap with the intra-month data above. For example, week 1 may have only 2 days if the first trading day of the year starts on a Thursday. Therefore, the weekly patterns serve as a different angle to the intra-month patterns.

2. QQQ

QQQ monthly patterns

July is very bullish for QQQ, ranked as the 3rd best month in the year with an average gain of 2.1%.

QQQ daily patterns: June and July

QQQ normally faces a small headwind until the final 4 days of the month.

But the first half of July is overwhelmingly filled by green days.

QQQ weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

Seasonally, Week 27 looks very strong.

IWM

IWM monthly patterns

For IWM, July is a more muted month compared with March to June. Things start to get tougher after mid-summer.

IWM daily patterns: June and July

IWM typically finishes June quite strong. There could be a short term opportunity for this week.

July is more volatile, consolidating with the month-end contributing to most of the performance.

IWM weekly patterns: Weeks 26 & 27 of the year

Both Weeks 26 and 27 look good for IWM.

A quick word from the author

I really appreciate your support for this newsletter.

Please feel free to share any suggestions or comments, either directly through email or in the comment section.

— Yimin

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.