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Happy New Year!

I have incorporated the latest 2024 data for SPY, QQQ, and IWM for our seasonality analysis, both on a monthly and an intra-month basis.

At the end of the article, there is our Google Sheet link for the Premium subscribers, on which you can track the daily changes and seasonality patterns.

Table of Contents

• 1. SPY: January Is Cautiously Bullish

• 2. QQQ: A Stronger Start Than SPY

• 3. IWM: A Weak Start

• 4. Seasonality Is Updated On Google Sheet (Premium …

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. SPY: January Is Cautiously Bullish

I have updated my dataset to include all of the SPY monthly returns since 1993, including the 2024 data.

January for SPY on average returns 0.67%. However, it is only the 7th best month of the year.

In terms of the best / worst Januaries, the best January saw a return of 8% in 2019, while the worst saw a negative return of -8.2% in 2009.

The intra-month chart shows the average return on every single date within January if trading took place. The general pattern is a bullish start in the first 1/3 of the month, with sideways consolidation in the second 1/3 of the month. January finishes with a final climb in the final 10 days.

2. QQQ: A Stronger Start Than SPY

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