Hi YXI friends,

For those new to our newsletter, we start with a macro dashboard, highlighting the macro environment, liquidity, and the asset price changes. We also provide a technical overview of SPY and QQQ to lay out the context.

We then move into the detailed analysis of TLT, BTC, and each of the Mag-7 names, with updates on current trade setups and notable ETF flows.

We are currently running live, daily quant model signals on TLT and BTC for our Premium members. Our backtests show a compounding edge in predicting their daily moves and significant outperformance using our strategy against the buy-and-hold strategy historically. If this is something of interest, I strongly encourage you to take a 7-day all-access trial.

BTC Model Strategy vs Buy-and-hold Backtest:

Our daily model signals are also delivered in a separate email ahead of this main newsletter to ensure the members receive them cleanly and quickly (see today’s Signal Note here). They are contained in our daily newsletter like this one too to complement our overall analysis.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

  • Observations from today

  • SPY and QQQ Charts

• 2. TLT

  • Oil

  • TLT Technical Analysis

  • YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

• 3. Bitcoin

  • YXI BTC Daily Signal

  • BTC Technical Analysis

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Trade Updates And Monitoring

• 6. Notable ETF Flows

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

Observations from today

1. Indices couldn’t get past the Wednesday 9 high (the tariff pause announcement). AAPL, a leader in the recovery, is also stalling.

2. Liquidity factors continue to drift towards favourability. Both the Fed Liquidity and G5 M2 levels are steadily moving higher in the past week.

3. Bond catches a bid - this bounce could continue. But yields and equities still trade with positive correlations, therefore not necessarily a good thing.

SPY and QQQ Charts

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/LSo8FbPM/)

As long as SPY remains below $577 (the wave ii high), there remains a risk that we have not see a local bottom yet. It is also concerning that SPY could not get past last Wednesday’s close after a week.

My current expectation is a wave (v) move down. Getting above $577 would invalidate this read.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/5p04BLqH/)

Similarly, QQQ remains below last Wednesday’s high, and well below the 200 EMA as well as the wave 2 high of $493. As long as these conditions continue to hold, QQQ is likely moving down for wave 5, towards $390.

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

The futures are pricing in 4 × 25bp cuts in the next 12 months. It is unlikely to see a cut in May, but the market assigns a high probability (80%) for a cut by June.

Oil

We start with oil first, as it is a key driver of inflation expectations, which in turn impact yields.

The latest IEA report has revised down the global oil demand growth for 2025 by 300 kb/d, bringing the forecast to 730 kb/d (from the end of 2024). This is due to the revised global economic growth forecasts due to escalating trade tensions.

At the same time, the global oil supply growth quickened in March, rising by 590 kb/d to reach 103.6 mb/d . This was lead by non-OPEC members (e.g. the US). There was a relatively small change in the OPEC+ oil supply, although they look to start ramping up supply from April as well.

OPEC+ Crude Oil Production

US Crude Oil Production

Oil (https://www.tradingview.com/x/HWArHngC/)

The break down in USO likely indicates we are in a wave (C) down from the 2022 high. My interpretation is that we could have seen waves 3 and 4, although the $60 low was not particularly stretched for the wave 3 target. Nonetheless, whether we have completed wave 3 or not, the pressure near term remains down.

TLT Technical Analysis

US 30Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/KxsXdmuH/)

I continue to have a “Low Conviction” disclaimer on this chart, because the macro fundamentals - lower oil prices, lower inflation expectation, recessionary fears - are at odds with rising yields.

However, I have to respect the chart technicals as the January high was broken intraday. Scott Bessent dismissed this recently as a “position unwinding” narrative, instead of the “foreign owners dumping” narrative.

If he is right (and he is biased to say “everything is fine”, then we could possibly treat the intraday spike as part of wave C of (B) in red.

Both the primary and the alternative paths point to higher termination zones for yields. We need to be aware of this risk even as intraday moves could retreat lower.

TLT (https://www.tradingview.com/x/LAjG8fKR/)

I have mirrored the primary (black) and alternative (red) paths for TLT. We may see bounces in the very near term, but the medium term directional risk remains down.

YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

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