Hi YXI friends,

In this article, we review the current SPY, QQQ, IWM price technicals using Elliott Waves Theory, their P/E multiples, their shareholder yield vs. 10Y Treasury yield, and their ETF fund flows.

This should provide a good overview of where equities are traded today relative to historical levels and the risk free returns.

Shareholder yield is based on three important components compared to the market cap (calculated by Koyfin):

• Dividend yield — the amount of dividends paid to shareholders

• Buyback yield — the amount spent repurchasing shares. This may indicate that management believes a stock is undervalued

• Debt paydown yield — the net change in long term debt over the trailing twelve months. Some investors consider that debt paydown is a way to enhance shareholder value by increasing the equity holder’s claim on the assets

Table of Contents

• 1. SPY

• 2. QQQ

• 3. IWM

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. SPY

SPY Price Daily (https://www.tradingview.com/x/w91gNo8L/)

I would expect wave (v) to be underway.

SPY P/E (NTM)

P/E (NTM) ratio is approaching the historical high of July 2020, over 2 standard deviations from the mean.

SPY Shareholder Yield vs US 10Y Yield

Shareholder yield is significantly below the risk-free yield.

SPY Fund Flows (Rolling 3-Month)

SPY has recorded record fund flows in the past quarter.

2. QQQ

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