Hi YXI friends,

An exciting announcement for this week, apart from Trump exempting smartphones and computers from new tariffs, is our Bitcoin Model Signal launch.

We keep today’s note free for everyone to get a taste of the quant signals we offer for Bitcoin and TLT, which have a 3-5% edge over buy-and-hold. This is a bigger difference than being a customer to the casino versus being the house.

The model signals are provided daily, in the forms of 1 (risk on, position on) versus 0 (risk off, go to cash). There is no minimum period of the signal staying either way, we simply act each day according to the new signal.

On top of the quant modelling, we leverage our expertise in Elliott Wave technical analysis, global liquidity, macro-driven considerations, cross-asset correlations, seasonality, and asset fundamentals to get a longer term, holistic view of trading each asset in our coverage. This combined approach provides us with more shots on goal and a higher chance to succeed in the long run.

Finally, we have a 100% price raise coming next week, to reflect the value we bring with our new quant signals You can lock in today’s price forever by subscribing to a 7-day all-access trial. There will be quant signals for each of the Mag-7 stocks too, starting with Tesla next week.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

3 observations from today:

1) Truflation real-time inflation measure went up by 9bp over the weekend, but is still below 1.5%.

2) Gold / GLD made a new all time high in a straight up fashion last week, while bonds remained under pressure.

3) Apple is leading the recovery, with a +4% move on Friday, a 2-standard-deviation move against the 1-year daily vol.

2. Bitcoin

YXI BTC Daily Signal (NEW!) 

Today’s Signal: 1 - Position On

We use Machine Learning to assess the macro conditions for BTC, by incorporating various macro drivers against BTC historical performance on a 1-day forward basis. This is a proprietary quantitative model unique to YX Insights. We use asset-specific models for BTC, TLT, and Mag-7 (coming soon).

Employing a strategy that involves purchasing Bitcoin when the Signal indicates 1 and transitioning to cash when the Signal indicates 0, the YXI Model strategy surpasses the "Buy and Hold" approach by 3% in daily success rates. Additionally, it achieves this with only half of the maximum drawdown.

At any particular day, week, or even month, there exists a possibility that the model may underperform compared to the buy-and-hold strategy. Nevertheless, over an extended period, the model demonstrates a significantly superior compounding effect and Sharpe ratio.

BTC Technical Analysis

My technical analysis is written independently of the quant signal. This is firstly because the signal only tries to predict the daily movements and not the big picture. Secondly, by combining different analytical toolkit, we get multiple shots at the goal.

BTC (https://www.tradingview.com/x/k3RUpraR/)

BTC seems to have broken just above the trend line resistance over the weekend, but it remains to be seen whether it is a true breakout, or another head fake.

There are two key takeaways from this chart.

1) The 5 waves down from January high suggests that the downtrend is in control, meaning the incoming rally is likely “corrective”. It means the bullish moves could get sold into, with $100k being a supply-heavy regime due to the traded volume.

This thesis is invalidated if we get a new all time high.

2) I remain positive that the cycle is unfinished. I do expect an all-time-high still to occur this year. However, I think the most probable timing is when the Fed starts cutting rates and turning on QE, likely in the second half of the year.

BTC vs G5 M2 Money Supply

For the patient investors, they may have finally waited out the M2 Money Supply contraction caused by a strong USD from the end of last year. As the chart above indicates, Bitcoin shortly bottomed after the final week of M2 trough (with a 3-month lag).

The G5 M2 Money Supply points to a new high since March. This should provide a significant tailwind for risk assets like BTC and TSLA. To a degree, this does contradict my “corrective bounce” expectation”, which is drawn from the technical analysis alone.

One can think of market behaviour as a big elastic band, with different factors pulling it to different directions at the different points on the band. Valuation, rates, liquidity, seasonality, momentum, and investor sentiment are all different factors that could affect where the price is headed. Any one of these factors can dominate the theme at a particular point in time. Currently, the tariff-driven negative investor sentiment is clearly dominating over everything else. This creates a significant drag over the impact of liquidity expansion.

Bitcoin Seasonality

This point is well illustrated by Bitcoin’s seasonality from the past 10 years. February - May is typically strong for Bitcoin, but we had a massive selloff instead as the broader negative investor sentiment took over.

3. TLT

YXI TLT Signal

Today’s Signal: 0 - Cash Preferred

We use Machine Learning to assess the macro conditions for TLT, by incorporating various macro drivers against TLT’s historical performance on a 5-day forward basis. This is a proprietary quantitative model unique to YX Insights.

Employing a strategy that involves purchasing TLT when the Signal indicates 1 and transitioning to cash when the Signal indicates 0, the YXI Model strategy surpasses the "Buy and Hold" approach by 5% in daily success rates. This is an edge that compounds substantially over a long period of time, as illustrated by the chart below.

FOMC Projections

The Fed Funds futures market is still expecting close to 4 × 25bp cuts in the next 12 months, but the front end pricing has softened.

Notably, the chance of a May cut after Trump paused tariffs is now close to 0, with June still a likely case but not a slam dunk.

TLT Technical Analysis

US 30Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/ij3A4WIh/)

For those who are new to my analysis, I held a bullish view on bonds (i.e. yields lower) until last week, when the price technicals of the 30-year yield broke to the upside in an aggressive fashion. This is despite oil making new lows and the Fed liquidity expanding.

The market guess is that 1) funds are deleveraging all of their positions and unwinding into cash, and 2) China is selling Treasuries to buy Gold, partly for retaliation and partly to speed up their Gold reserve.

There is probably truth to both. The main question is whether this move is sustainable - surely something has to give as Trump doesn’t want high Treasury yields?

Considering the above, I have marked the chart as “Low Conviction” for now.

TLT (https://www.tradingview.com/x/1oskTDcU/)

The price technicals of the 30-year bond has opened the door to TLT heading lower. If TLT wants to resume its bullish trend, it MUST bounce from here THIS WEEK.

Again, I must stress it is currently trading with less correlations against other assets.

TLT vs GLD, DXY, SPY, 10-year Breakeven (inflation expectation), USO

4. Magnificent 7

Given the length of the current report, I will attach the individual valuation charts tomorrow.

Apple

AAPL (https://www.tradingview.com/x/LCGWZ9JS/)

AAPL is projected to open higher on Monday, as Trump excluded tariffs on electronics over the weekend.

From a technical POV, I am 1) optimistic we have a bottom on April 8, but 2) unsure if we have already completed waves i and ii from the recovery.

I have placed a preliminary path for the 5 waves in (c) from here in red, if the April 10 low holds. But be cautious that we are still very early doors in this recovery so there may be head fakes.

Amazon

AMZN (https://www.tradingview.com/x/iBRnrcXZ/)

I am less optimistic if we bottomed for AMZN, although it is a more compelling name than AAPL from a business fundamentals angle in the long term.

Essentially, the wait here is if AMZN either 1) breaks above $205 to be decisively bullish, or 2) break below $160 to complete its wave c target.

Alphabet

GOOGL (https://www.tradingview.com/x/LK4c0ZSx/)

GOOGL may open above last week’s high, which could start favouring the red count, for a wave b bounce. The reason I have placed the black count as primary (heading lower for wave (C) is due to an exceptionally short wave (ii) in the possible red count.

Meta

META (https://www.tradingview.com/x/GOMQxrIz/)

I have greater confidence that META bottomed last week, with wave c at equal length to a. However, I am unsure if we finished the wave ii retrace for the waves i-ii setup here.

While I lean towards wave i unfinished looking at the hourly chart, I have mapped out the possible future 5 waves up towards $800+ in red. Again, we are in the early stage of a recovery, so please take this path as a very preliminary guesstimate.

Microsoft

MSFT (https://www.tradingview.com/x/CYq9W02r/)

I am satisfied with the depth of wave 4, and do think MSFT is moving into the start of wave 5.

While again I don’t have great confidence that wave i has completed, I will illustrate the possible 5 waves up towards the wave 5 target here.

Nvidia

NVDA (https://www.tradingview.com/x/XJG5VOky/)

NVDA needs to clear the two resistance trend lines overhead in order return to the bullish path. My wave 5 target is $170, although it’s taking a very long-winded route there.

I don’t think we have had the wave ii correction yet in this rally, so we need to patiently wave for that to resolve too.

Tesla

TSLA (https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xh0YGmPJ/)

TSLA has a similar need to clear the resistance trend line above. My read for TSLA is similar to Bitcoin, which is a corrective rally coming in wave B with help of global liquidity expansion.

TSLA vs G5 M2 Money Supply

5. Opportunistic Setups

In this section, we will share high conviction setups from time to time, whether due to valuation (mean reversion), price technicals, or macro. The covered names spans across financials, software, energy and consumer.

Today’s Setup: KWEB

KWEB (https://www.tradingview.com/x/KhVLNBas/)

KWEB retraced nearly all of its early 2025 gains in the past month. While Chinese stocks still face the headwinds of the negative tariff impact, there is a high risk-reward opportunistic setup here.

Here, we are targeting wave iii of C, which I believe the latest high did not complete. Possible catalysts to the upside include negotiation starting between the US and China, as well as large domestic easing measures.

6. Trade Updates And Monitoring

KWEB, BTC, C, CME

These are the remaining long setups we have currently that have not been invalidated. I will share chart updates on C and CME later this week.

7. Notable ETF Flows

Recent Notable Flows (% of AUM)