Hi YXI friends,

After already establishing the TLT quant signals, we will be bringing to you Bitcoin quant signals later this month.

Our daily quant signals have a measurable edge over a buy-and-hold strategy, both in its hit rates and the magnitude of returns.

If you have friends or colleagues who are interested in advanced daily signals for TLT and Bitcoin, please share my newsletter with them. There will be a 100% price increase (not a typo) in the second half of April, but the earlier Premium members would have locked in their current subscription prices forever.

The increase in price will still be below the market value of the signals we provide, meaning we will likely hike prices further in the coming months. We will also be adding daily quant signals for the Mag-7. It is simply best to lock in today’s price as soon as possible.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

• 2. TLT

  • YXI’s TLT Quant Signal (New, Beta Stage)

  • FOMC Projection by Fed Funds Futures

  • Price Technicals

• 3. Bitcoin

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Opportunistic Setups

  • Gold: A Short Term Bearish View

• 6. Trade Updates And Monitoring

• 7. Notable ETF Flows

• 8. Notable Seasonality Patterns

  • GLD Bearish Pattern

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

I have amended the format of the dashboard so it is more mobile friendly.

Fed liquidity continues to expand, but G5 M2 Money Supply has been sideways in the past month. The former helps bond prices stay elevated, while the latter translates to risk asset movements, such as Bitcoin and Tesla, with a 3-month lag.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin all fell as market prices. This could be a turning point, as investors start to shy away from Gold (aka. safe haven), even as economic weaknesses continue to materialise.

2. TLT

From tomorrow onwards, we will be reserving our TLT signals for premium members only.

YXI’s TLT Quant Signal (New, Beta Stage)

Today’s Signal: Strong Bullishness For TLT In Next 5 Days

We use Machine Learning to assess the macro conditions for TLT, by incorporating various macro drivers against TLT’s historical performance on a 5-day forward basis. This is a proprietary quantitative model unique to YX Insights.

The model is subject to regular update and tweaks. However, I will share my data as I see them from now. Overtime, we will have these quantitative signals available for BTC and all of Mag-7 stocks.

Here the signals are sorted into 4 categories.

Over the past 1000 trading days, when the signal was “mildly bullish” or “strongly bullish”, the market showed positive return over the next 5 days 57% of the time. This is compared with a 52% of the time TLT was actually positive over any random 5-day period. It is an edge that compounds substantially over a long period of time, like being the House in a casino.

FOMC Projection by Fed Funds Futures

The market has walked back some of the cuts priced in for May. Now it is expecting a 100% chance of a 25bp cut by the June FOMC.

Price Technicals

US 30Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/e7vrcwBT/)

Because our focus is the TLT, we will track the 30-year yield more often than the 10-year for relevancy. The 30-year yield saw a sharp spike yesterday, which I suspect to be a wave “b” for now. My target for wave “c” is below 4.25%, between 100% and 123% extension of wave “a”.

This view will be invalidated if the 30-year yield travels above 4.76%.

TLT (https://www.tradingview.com/x/yLcd2ZsS/)

Consequently, I am moving up my TLT target to the $96-97 region.

3. Bitcoin

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